Large scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the future Colombian energy system
Abstract
The diversification of the energy matrix, including larger shares of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), is a significant part of the Colombian energy strategy towards a sustainable and more secure energy system. Historically, the country has relied on the intensive use of hydropower and fossil fuels as the main energy sources. Colombia has a huge renewables potential, and therefore the exploration of different pathways for their integration is required. The aim of this study was to build a model for a country with a hydro-dominated electric power system and analyse the impacts of integrated variable RES in long-term future scenarios. EnergyPLAN was the modelling tool employed for simulating the reference year and future alternatives. Initially, the reference model was validated, and successively five different scenarios were built. The results show that an increase in the shares of wind, solar and bioenergy could achieve an approximate reduction of 20% in both the CO2 emissions and the total fuel consumption of the country by 2030. Further, in the electricity sector the best-case scenario could allow an estimated 60% reduction in its emission intensity. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
This research was supported by the Fundación CEIBA - Gobernación de Bolívar through the program “Bolivar gana con ciencia”. We thank our colleague Mauro Gonzalez, from TEBSA, who provided his insights and expertise that greatly assisted this work. We also thank IDEAM for providing their weather station data. AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use BaU Business as Usual CEEP Critical Excess of Electricity Production CEPAL Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean COMP Compromise Coefficient COP Conference of the parties ENSO El Niño and La Niña southern oscillation EPPA Economic Projection and Policy Analysis GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse gases IDEAM Hydrology, meteorology and environmental institute IEA International Energy Agency iNDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change IPPU Industrial Products and Product Use ISA Interconexión eléctrica S.A. (Electric interconnection company) LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning OSeMOSYS Open Source Energy Modelling System PES Primary Energy Supply PV Photovoltaics RES Renewable Energy Sources SIEL Colombian Electrical Information System SIN National Interconnected System tCO 2 e ton of CO 2 equivalent TPES Total primary energy supply UPME Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (Mining and Energy Planning Unit) VRS Variable Renewable Source XM Compañía de Expertos en Mercados (Market experts company) ZNI Not-Interconnected Zones
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